Thursday, December 22, 2011

The Kim Who Is Now 'There' But Not 'There'

In April, 2011 I wrote this, suggesting reasons why Kim Jong Eun cannot rule through the National Defense Commission as his father did. It is worth briefly reflecting on.

On Tuesday, December 20th the National Intelligence Service, in a report to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, stated, "(Kim Jong Eun has been declared the successor but until such time as he becomes the official supreme leader) they will establish transitional ruling organs with the Party Central Military Commission at the core, and there present policy will be discussed."

In its current incarnation, the Central Military Commission does not represent the long term answer to the conundrum of through what or whom Kim Jong Eun should rule. As such, if he cements his leadership in the coming months without crisis, Kim will presumably get around to taking on the mantle of Chosun Workers' Party Chief-Secretary, yes perhaps via a Party Congress, and may then begin to rule North Korea through the overall Party apparatus that way.

However, on the other hand I still cannot yet see any good reason to believe that he will, as I said back in April, "step into the leader's slippers" and move into the big chair in the National Defense Commission.

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